(September 2020)

One of the things the market has been banking on is a new fiscal stimulus package from the government. In particular, Congress has been squabbling over a new package for several weeks and now seem to be further apart than ever. The situation has grown so bad that the conversation is turning more towards blame than the typical narrative of “a package will be coming very soon”. In many ways the economy is relying on such a deal and that is why it is so crucial to markets. Tens of millions of Americans are going to need aid in order to carry on like they did pre-COVID, and if a stimulus deal does not appear, the country risks a much deeper recession than if stimulus were to arrive.

(New York)

FINSUM + Magnifi: Just like a vaccine, government assistance is a critical pillar of the market’s picture for a strong recovery (a view which is currently priced-in). Without it, it is easy to imagine a slow and painful correction as the market’s expectations get re-priced with each passing headline.


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